Sector’s development outlook
Poland’s sustainable economic growth and its process of steadily catching up to Western European economies will contribute to gradual growth of electricity demand.
According to the Ministry of Economy, the demand for energy in 2020 will be 169.3 TWh, and 217.4 TWh in 2030, compared to last year’s consumption of 161.4 TWh.
The European Union’s climate and energy policy calls for reducing the emission of greenhouse gases until 2030 by at least 40% from their 1990 level. Further European decisions will have a major impact on how the energy sector in Poland develops.
New domestic regulations concerning renewable energy sources, in particular, the auction system slated to take force in mid-2016 will significantly affect the further development of renewable energy sources in Poland. Resources allocated to support the generation of electricity from renewable sources will be granted, first of all, to generators willing to accept a lower price for generation.
In connection with the advanced age of Polish power generation units (almost 45% of the facilities generating electricity are over 30 years old, approximately 77% – over 20 years old), the energy sector faces a challenge to replace them by building new energy sources. The draft energy policy up till 2050 prepared by the Ministry of Economy assumes that until 2020 approximately 6.5 GW of capacity will be withdrawn from the national generation system. According to the optimistic scenario, the Ministry of Economy estimates that by 2019 new power units with a similar capacity will be constructed. At the moment, the construction of power units, inter alia in Jaworzno (TAURON), Opole (PGE) and Kozienice (ENEA) is in progress.
The construction of two nuclear power plants with an aggregate capacity of 6 GW is also planned. The total capital expenditures to build the first nuclear power plant (3 GW), including preparatory works are estimated to range from PLN 40–60 billion.