Prices of coloured certificates
2015 brought significant changes in the market for property rights, associated mainly with amendments to legal regulations. In February 2015, a new act on renewable energy sources was passed, changing the support system for renewable energy sources (RES) in Poland, by introducing an auction model to replace the green certificates system. This act took force on 4 May 2015, while its main elements introducing the auction system were to enter into force at the beginning of 2016. However, the amendment to the Act of 22 December 2015 postponed the deadline for the introduction of the auction system by half a year.
The continuing oversupply of PMOZE_A property rights (green certificates) on the market made the average values of the OZEX_A index fall steadily from January to July 2015, from PLN 157.42/MWh in January to PLN 105.17/MWh in July. In the corresponding period, the surplus on the PMOZE_A register rose to 21.3 TWh, confirming the inefficiency of the legacy RES support system that is unable to generate adequate price signals to ensure the sector’s sustainable development. Starting from August 2015 prices started to recover slowly; however, growth was largely symbolic, and at the end of the year prices were PLN 115.60/MWh. Compared to 2014, the average value of the OZEX_A index dropped by almost PLN 63/MWh, to PLN 123.61/MWh, while the value of PMOZE_A register balance increased throughout 2015 by 14.3 TWh to 27.3 TWh which, considering rights blocked for redemption, tops 17 TWh at the end of 2015.
In the area of supporting energy produced in high efficiency cogeneration, due to the deadline for the fulfilment of cogeneration obligations, in 2015 the time period was divided into two halves. Until the end of June 2015 the PMEC-2014 product was traded (red certificates). Its prices stayed within a limited band from PLN 10.59/MWh in January to PLN 10.35/MWh in June. On the other hand, at the beginning of June 2015, quotations of the PMEC-2015 product started on the TGE, opening at PLN 10.72/MWh. Until the end of 2015, this product’s volatility on the KECX index was symbolic – at the end of 2015 the index was PLN 10.78/MWh. Market prices range slightly below the substitution fee set in 2015 at PLN 11/MWh.
In gas cogeneration the situation was similar. Until the end of June 2015, the PMGM-2014 product (yellow certificates) was quoted, closing at PLN 106.69/MWh. This level, similar to coal cogeneration, was set by the substitution fee of PLN 110/MWh for 2014. The PMGM-2015 product related to 2015 production was quoted starting in April 2015 (the average value of the KGMX index was PLN 110.28/MWh). Until the end of 2015, its value rose month by month, reaching PLN 118.23/MWh in December. The average of 2015 quotations for the PMGM-2015 product was PLN 118.35/MWh. It was only PLN 4.30/MWh higher than the substitution fee that edged up to PLN 121.63/MWh in 2015.
In February 2015, a new act on renewable energy sources was passed, changing the support system for renewable energy sources (RES) in Poland, by introducing an auction model to replace the green certificates system.
The situation on the market for property rights confirming energy generation using methane combustion – PMMET (violet certificates) developed in a manner corresponding to high efficiency cogeneration. Until the end of June 2015, the PMMET-2014 product was quoted. The average value of the KMETX index was PLN 61.84/MWh. Market prices were at a level identical to the substitution fee in 2014-2015 of PLN 63.26/MWh. The PMMET-2015 product for 2015 generation was quoted, on average, at PLN 61.76/MWh.